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April 17, 2009

$80 Million Opening Weekend For Wolverine?

— Posted by John Campea

There has been a lot of negative buzz surrounding the upcoming Wolverine movie. Rumors that studio execs didn’t like what they were seeing as the movie was shooting, an over sized character list, the very fact that this film was a prequel in the first place and several other reasons.

Still, the moment Gavin Hood was announced as the director, you knew that no matter how bad things looked, there would always be a chance it may end up being solid. Not sure how much of a chance, but a chance.

With the major online leak of Wolverine, some people wondered how much of a box office hit the movie would take (I mean, if piracy is really killing the industry like the MPAA says it is). In the back of my head I’ve been thinking the movie would have a $45-$50 million opening weekend (not bad at all), but to my surprise, some of the studios are actually projecting an $80 million opening weekend. Nikki Finke shares this:

Twentieth Century Fox internally is projecting $70M-$75M in domestic box office gross. But there wasn’t any foaming at the mouth at Fox when I passed along that rival studios were predicting $80M for the May 1st opening weekend of its summer blockbuster X-Men Origins: Wolverine. Then again, fans are expecting a big fat debut along the order of the 2006 threequel X-Men: The Last Stand’s $102.7M, not the 2003 sequel X-Men: United’s $85.5M. (They cost $210+M and $110+M, respectively.)

I’ll go out on a limb here and say I think they’re wrong. Not because of piracy, but because I just don’t feel the buzz for this flick to warrant an $80 million opening projection. I might end up being wrong, and I hope I am… but I think projecting anything over $55 million is a bit of wishful thinking. I’m not totally confident about that. Let’s see how it plays out.

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  • paul d

    this movie honestly has a chance to clear 100 mil openening weekend. nearly one year to the date iron man opening last year, x-men has a huge fanbase and will excite moviegoers who have had a month and a half of very weak releases.

  • paul d

    this movie honestly has a chance to clear 100 mil openening weekend. nearly one year to the date iron man opening last year, x-men has a huge fanbase and will excite moviegoers who have had a month and a half of very weak releases.

  • Bruce

    I’m predicting 70 million based off the XMen name alone. Unfortunately, the movie is extremely bad and word of mouth and Star Trek will bury it by the next weekend.

  • Tim Hartnell

    Hey everyone check out an xmen mashup I did in honor of wolverine origins: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GrnzrZmd6qs

  • http://www.ralphdeluca.com Ralph DeLuca

    I am really looking forward to seeing this film. I even ordered the original movie poster for my collection.

    Ralph DeLuca
    Madison, NJ

  • krazie835

    Well, Taken did pretty well despite the fact that it had already been released in other places and the dvd was already floating around. Not to mention the fact that you’d be more likely to find a solid quality version of the movie on a torrent site than the unfinished version of Wolverine.

    I’m sure piracy is hurting the industry but it’s not hurting the movie industry like it’s hurting the music industry–not yet anyways lol.

  • http://muvi.fuzcia.com MUVI

    I’m not to interesting with this movie. X-Men is a name that bring a lot of superhero character. It will be nice if they are working together, not by single hero (wolverine) like this ;)

    Just comment

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