$80 Million Opening Weekend For Wolverine?

There has been a lot of negative buzz surrounding the upcoming Wolverine movie. Rumors that studio execs didn’t like what they were seeing as the movie was shooting, an over sized character list, the very fact that this film was a prequel in the first place and several other reasons.

Still, the moment Gavin Hood was announced as the director, you knew that no matter how bad things looked, there would always be a chance it may end up being solid. Not sure how much of a chance, but a chance.

With the major online leak of Wolverine, some people wondered how much of a box office hit the movie would take (I mean, if piracy is really killing the industry like the MPAA says it is). In the back of my head I’ve been thinking the movie would have a $45-$50 million opening weekend (not bad at all), but to my surprise, some of the studios are actually projecting an $80 million opening weekend. Nikki Finke shares this:

Twentieth Century Fox internally is projecting $70M-$75M in domestic box office gross. But there wasn’t any foaming at the mouth at Fox when I passed along that rival studios were predicting $80M for the May 1st opening weekend of its summer blockbuster X-Men Origins: Wolverine. Then again, fans are expecting a big fat debut along the order of the 2006 threequel X-Men: The Last Stand’s $102.7M, not the 2003 sequel X-Men: United’s $85.5M. (They cost $210+M and $110+M, respectively.)

I’ll go out on a limb here and say I think they’re wrong. Not because of piracy, but because I just don’t feel the buzz for this flick to warrant an $80 million opening projection. I might end up being wrong, and I hope I am… but I think projecting anything over $55 million is a bit of wishful thinking. I’m not totally confident about that. Let’s see how it plays out.

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50 thoughts on “$80 Million Opening Weekend For Wolverine?

  1. this movie honestly has a chance to clear 100 mil openening weekend. nearly one year to the date iron man opening last year, x-men has a huge fanbase and will excite moviegoers who have had a month and a half of very weak releases.

  2. this movie honestly has a chance to clear 100 mil openening weekend. nearly one year to the date iron man opening last year, x-men has a huge fanbase and will excite moviegoers who have had a month and a half of very weak releases.

  3. I’m predicting 70 million based off the XMen name alone. Unfortunately, the movie is extremely bad and word of mouth and Star Trek will bury it by the next weekend.

  4. Well, Taken did pretty well despite the fact that it had already been released in other places and the dvd was already floating around. Not to mention the fact that you’d be more likely to find a solid quality version of the movie on a torrent site than the unfinished version of Wolverine.

    I’m sure piracy is hurting the industry but it’s not hurting the movie industry like it’s hurting the music industry–not yet anyways lol.

  5. I’m not to interesting with this movie. X-Men is a name that bring a lot of superhero character. It will be nice if they are working together, not by single hero (wolverine) like this ;)

    Just comment

  6. Some are forgetting how most people (i.e. nerds and average film-goers alike) walked out not liking X-MEN: THE LAST STAND. That said, this is 100% on Jackman and people still love the guy and that character (i.e. look at the increased Oscar ratings!)

    So I do think it’s going to pull in $70-$80 million on its opening. But yeah word-of-mouth will kill it and it will plummet big time during the second weekend imo.

    As for TREK, $50 million is a solid (and more so ever realistic) opening number considering it’s a “franchise revival” film where the last few installments were pretty much failures – correct me if I’m wrong.

    It has the burden of having to convince the general public that it’s worth going to see in much the same way BATMAN BEGINS and SUPERMAN RETURNS did – which were both considered box-office under-performers despite grossing $200 million.

  7. The funny thing is, I actually am not excited about this movie in the least. I already know about Wolverine’s past and I know where he ends up, so I really don’t plan on rushing out to see this. I hope it makes money and doesn’t get lost in the Star Trek/Terminator shuffle throughout the month. Is it just me or are the blowing their load a little early in the Summer? All that’s left action blockbuster wise is Transformers and Harry Potter.

  8. I’m hoping for 75m. I’m also hoping for a second week drop between 20-30m, no more.

    “Hoping”

    That’s a strong, strong word. Let me tell you what the problem is right now: the projection is 80m. With the mixed reactions to the film (even before the unfinished film leak) and that while most fans aren’t disappointed that Gambit and Deadpool will show up…

    …would there have been more interest in films that follow X Men The Last Stand, especially given the bit of the unsolved bits at the end of the Last Stand?

    …are folks really interested in the backstory of the Weapon X program?

    …the notion that Gambit and Deadpool may get spinoff films- will the characters be underused or hog a spotlight?

    Which brings us to this-

    IF this film pulls money under the projected weekend, it has a ripple effect on:

    – Wolverine II
    – Magneto
    – First Class
    – X-Men 4 (or 5, 6…7…?)

    and of course, Gambit and Deadpool spinoffs, should either come to pass. It goes without saying a lot is riding on this film. If it is a success by the ballpark of the projected standard I hope it is a success for the right reasons. If it underperforms, will it be faulted for the right reasons?

    By the way… if there *is* a true draw to this film, it isn’t the characters of Gambit, Deadpool or even quite possibly Wolverine .

    Liev’s Sabretooth looks like the show stealer to me.

  9. I saw the leaked film and I will be incredibly surprised if the film makes more than 50 million… and if it breaks 50, even 60 mill, I will conclude that us Americans are idiots. That film is one f the worst films I’ve ever seen and that’s not an exaggeration. I’d rather watch catwoman cause at least Halle Berry looks nice in tights.

  10. Wolverine will probably not make 70 mill. but it does have the possibility of becoming a sleeper hit, maybe more, if word of mouth proves good after that initial weekend.

  11. I will go see Wolverine, though I’m skeptical about how good it actually will be.

    I’m with you John, I don’t think it’s going to make as much as they are projecting.

    I’m more excited about Star Trek and Terminator Salvation later that month.

    Dennis

  12. Not a huge X-men fan although I enjoyed all three previous films. That said Wolverine is my least fave and I probaly wouldn’t have gone out of my way to make opening weekend.

    However, after I saw the trailer with all the other characters, like The Blob, it became a sure bet I’ll be there opening weekend.

    That said 80 million is a stretch IMO but I think there is some underestimation of Wolverines popularity.

    Again, If anything I think the leak will help the film. I’m not condoning it. I do know a few people that would have waited for the DVD thatare now saying “I’m Going to the Theatre.” Not because they SAW the leaked film but simply because they HEARD about it on the news/web/xbox chat or whatever.

  13. I am not a giant fan of comic books or comic book movies (although I have recently read Watchmen which is truly brilliant; the movie is great as a piece of fan porn as Kevin Smith would say, which is not necessarily a bad thing).

    But before the leak I would guess that this film would pull a 80+M weekend no problem, especially considering the performance of the last film. Hugh Jackman is arguably at the height of his career and I think this leak has just brought more attention to the film, which is a good thing. The thing is, not only are comic fans going to see this in huge numbers, so are many women simply because of his “sex symbol” status. Now I am becoming more confident that the movie can definitely open at 90+M and perhaps even hit the hundred mark. I think this movie will have more fans opening weekend then Iron man which boasted an incredible 98.6M weekend. My prediction is 100 million.

  14. Being the first summer blockbuster out is a huge advantage. I don’t think $50 mil will be a problem at all & can easily see it getting to $80 mil. Lots of people haven’t seen the leaked version, including me. I also have a funny feeling that many of those who have will still go out to see it, if for no other reason than to find out what the difference is.

  15. It’s good you guys have such high hopes for this, and truly hope it is good. That said, I will be amazed if it breaks the $50mil mark, so hopefully amazement is in my future.

  16. I have three people very close to me who watched the leaked copy and they all liked it and plan to go see it on opening weekend. They’re not overly critical and only one is a huge Wolvie fan, but he is able to accept changes. I chose not to watch the leaked copy — I said NO to the peer pressure. lol

    I think 80mil is a high prediction even before the leak. I think it’ll reach 50mil easy and top off at 60mil. There are still plenty of people out there who haven’t seen the leaked copy and who enjoy superhero flicks. The people also love Hugh Jackman …women and men alike, so the film should still have a strong opening.

    I agree with Kristina — Fox should be more concerned about the 2nd weekend drop off especially if the final cut of this flick doesn’t deliver enough to the fans.

  17. HA! Fox has their heads so far up their asses thinking that, that piece of shit movie will bank that much on opening weekend. Leak or no leak the film is fucked! The leak just helped the rest of us who were kinda like “Hmm…maybe I’ll sneak in and see it so I dont have to pay” but now the majority of us know that we arent going to see it.

  18. I think 70mil would be a conservative guess. It will probably make about 85 to 90 mil. I saw the bootleg and it only made me want to see the finished film more.

  19. They shouldn’t be worried about the opening. They should be worried about the SECOND WEEK DROPOFF, which could be massive if the movie is as bad as the online buzz is saying.

    Then again, this buzz is coming from people who closely follow the characters and their comic origins, and are horrified by even slight changes. A lay person might find the movie totally enjoyable.

    1. I agree, the second week should be what they worry about. The first week will carry all of the comic book faithful, those faithful to the X-Men movies and the children. However, if it isn’t good even those groups won’t come back to see it again. I heard that this movie is on par with the epic crapfest that was Highlander 2 (or the even worse than that one, Highlander: The Source).

    2. Well I think it will be a massive drop off no matter what, such is the nature of the summer blockbuster season today. Unless you’re the closing film of the season (which TDK practically was last year) or the film opening the week after you bombs (like Speed Racer did), you’re going down the tubes to a certain degree.

      Personally, I don’t think Wolverine will be a car wreck but it will be lame and ‘Star Trek’ is going to wipe the floor with it.

      I’ll take $55 million John, count me in.

    3. @Daniel

      pleas…pleas…PLEASE don’t ever mention Highlander: The Source! My efforts to purge my memory of all things related to that abomination have been successful, that is until I read your post. Now I have lost all hope for humanity!!!!

      It was a bad Highlander movie. ;-)

    4. @King Phil

      I love you sweet pea, but I’m not totally sold on Star Trek being huge. It’ll open, no doubt, but wipe the floor? I’ve seen the trailer a few times in theaters and shown it to a few people, and the reaction has been shockingly similar: people are pumped, interested, liking what they see…and then the words STAR TREK come onscreen and it all goes to hell. People literally bust out laughing. Don’t know what that means for the film, but it doesn’t seem good.

      Reminds me of when the Miami Vice trailer was released. I clearly remember sitting in a theater with a good friend, and he was INTO that trailer. LOVED IT…and then the title came up and he and the audience dissolved into laughter.

    5. Kris
      The same exact thing happened with the Transformers trailer

      It looked badass with the 13 seconds of mars footage and it looked creepy…then the teaser trailer ended and it said “TRANSFORMERS” and the whole theatre was saying the same thing
      “Are you fucking serious?! HAHA!”

    6. @Your Majesty

      I don’t think Star Trek will open with much more than $50 mil either but the difference will be word of mouth. I think that film is going to be pretty awesome and the word of mouth is going to help it stay in the no. 2 or 3 spot for a good few weeks. If ‘Wolverine’ and ‘Angels & Demons’ both suck, that’s going to help it even more.

      I’m feeling the buzz of activity on the site again. Isn’t this lovely?

    7. @Hazzy

      People laughed at the TF trailer? I always heard cheers, followed by boos at Michael Bay’s name popping up.

      @King Phil

      Star Trek is going to depend HEAVILY upon WOM, I agree with that.

      Yup, this joint is buzzin’ again. YAY!

  20. i say 60 – 70 mil….yeah right. IT’S WOLVERINE. THE LEAK-DOESN’T MATTER. WORD OF MOUTH-DOESN’T MATTER. WOLVERINE, nuff said.

  21. I would never think Hannah Montana would make 30 mil in one weekend either. I do think this movie will break 50 mil and wouldn’t be surprised if it exceeds 70 mil.

  22. I really do dislike the franchise but still think it to be entertaining. No matter how much a movie sucks, it is still cool to see it brought to the big screen and watch “drawn” characters come to life. I really have been looking forward to this movie since you posted the first trailer on here. I thought, wow, they are going to make a good, somewhat violent super hero movie…I am all for it!!! Then I saw the new trailer on TV last night…well, my hopes have been dashed. It looked cheesy to me. Don’t get me wrong, I am still going to see the movie but my hopes arent high. But yes, I do think this movie will gross a huge amount of money both opening weekend and continuing weeks to follow. The movies may suck, but the fan base will never die.

  23. All I know is if this movie does hit the expected mark, then it will get blamed on piracy. And if it does hit the mark or go over, then the movie will be considered a success despite the piracy. So this raises a couple questions in my head. If it is successful, could that be due to the piracy? Also, could the leak of the movie have been made as a scapegoat in case it fails?

    Personally, I did not see the leaked movie. I was not to interested in the movie prior to the leak, and I am still currently not all that interested. To many movies coming out in May that I would rather see than this, so it will probably be a DVD rental for me in the end.

  24. Star trek before…Angels & Demons…and Terminator Salvation and Up! all open before or around the time of Wolverine. Granted the audience will vary but there is some overlap. Actually it seems like a very crowded May and I wonder if the $80 Mil is really a sound projection. I was thinking 40-50 but I guess word of mouth and reviews will tell.

    1. May does look to be very crowed but Wolverine does have the distinction of being released first…so Wolvie has a full week to fill seats before Star Trek comes out. After that, good luck.

  25. Wow! X-Men 3 cost 210 million! I never knew that. Anyway, I would not be surprised by an $80 million opening weekend. It might even gross a little more. I mean it’s X-Men, people will come to see it. Unless word of mouth is really bad after opening weekend I see it making at $200 million at the end of its run.

    1. Yes, Last Stand cost that much coin. But one ofthe biggest reasons why it did was the filming schedule and quick director replacement. If that production hadn’t been burning midnight oil, it might have been slightly less of a price tag.

    1. IMO you will be not like it much then…really its very telegraphed in like every aspect…nothing i saw was like OMFG wow that was awesome…more like hmm that was kinda neat.

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