Yes it’s really come to that, this either means that the Execs who did this before in Studios are idiots, or that Computers are now so powerful that they can predict movies which will be a success. Of course, there’s another option. It’s rubbish and doesn’t really work.
From New Scientist – which yes I do read regularly and even buy a paper copy of! – comes the story of a man who has developed a Neural Network (a computer system capable of mimmicking the brain’s operation) that he claims can predict successful movies.
The idea comes from Ramesh Sharda, an information scientist at Oklahoma State University in Stillwater, who has trained an artificial neural network to recognise what makes a successful movie…
…Using data on 834 movies released between 1998 and 2002, Sharda found that the neural network can judge a film based on seven key parameters: the “star value” of the cast, the movie’s age rating, the time of release against that of competitive movies, the film’s genre, the degree of special effects used, whether it is a sequel or not, and the number of screens it is expected to open in. This allowed it to place a movie in one of nine categories, ranging from “flop” (total takings less than $1 million) to “blockbuster” (over $200 million).
The system cannot take into account the intricacies of the plot, but Sharda says it can nonetheless get the revenue category spot-on 37 per cent of the time, and correct to within one category either side 75 per cent of the time. This is enough to make the system a “powerful decision aid”, Sharda says.
Oooh right. So it’s “spot-on” 37% of the time, and close 75%….ermm, is that me or does that add up to 112%? Wait though, looking at the categories involved it’s analysing cast, special effects, screens, rating, release, genre..okay, apply that to the Matrix trilogy and we have a surefire hit franchise! The previous Batman movies? Anymore that just makes this look a bit limp?
The idea is now to make it into a website, add DVD sales and presumably sell it to the studios…geez, they’ll make anything, perhaps they’ll buy anything!
