Next up to bat for the summer 2007 blockbuster fest is Shrek 3. I’m a fan of the Shrek series up to this point, although I must admit my expectations for this third installment are pretty low. I think it’s safe to say that Spider-Man 3’s reign at the top of the box-office is over. But the question is… how many people are actually going to get out to see Shrek 3?
There’s a GREAT short article over at Yahoo Movies, that brings up a couple of good points to keep in mind when considering this question:
Rival Fandango.com shows the latest installment of the computer-animated storybook satire outselling “Shrek 2” by more than a 2-to-1 margin
Outselling Shrek 2 by a margin of 2 to 1??? Keep in mind Shrek 2 made $108 million opening weekend. Now, throw this into the mix:
“Shrek the Third” opens in an estimated 4,100 theaters on Friday. While advance ticket sales are seen as general benchmark of anticipation for a film, they less clearly gauge the ultimate commercial success of movies like “Shrek,” whose core family audience may see the film more than once, but not on opening weekend. “Shrek 2,” the highest-grossing animated film of all time, still holds the record for the biggest second-weekend box office of any movie.”
That’s a great point. Being a family film, a lot of parents are going to wait till the second week to get out to see this. I highly doubt we’re going to see a 63% drop after the first weekend like we saw with Spider-Man 3. This movie is going to make A LOT of cash. And being a pure family film, it’s far more critic and word of mouth proof than Spider-Man 3.
I just don’t see Shrek 3 beating Spider-Man 3’s opening weekend box office record. But I’ll bet you dollars to dimes that Shrek’s 2nd weekend will beat Spider-Man’s 2nd weekend.
I’m guessing Shrek 3 makes $105 million this weekend. What do you think?
